{"id":512,"date":"2022-01-08T01:25:17","date_gmt":"2022-01-07T17:25:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.c19vir.us\/?p=512"},"modified":"2022-01-08T01:25:17","modified_gmt":"2022-01-07T17:25:17","slug":"covid-case-to-death-lag","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.c19vir.us\/index.php\/2022\/01\/08\/covid-case-to-death-lag\/","title":{"rendered":"COVID Case-to-death Lag"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Deaths in WA jumped from 10 to 18 in the 7-day moving average on Jan 6 from Jan 5 (with counts of 48 and 65 on the 4ths and 6th). We\u2019re just at the 2-week mark since the case spike.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1324\" height=\"609\" src=\"https:\/\/www.c19vir.us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/Cases-220107.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-513\"\/><figcaption>Cases (from New York Times via Google)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1313\" height=\"606\" src=\"https:\/\/www.c19vir.us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/Deaths-220107.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-514\"\/><figcaption>Deaths (from New York Times via Google)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Here is a research paper on the estimated lag between cases and deaths: <a href=\"https:\/\/pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov\/33709641\/\">https:\/\/pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov\/33709641\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>&#8220;Results:\u00a0<\/strong>The average lag between daily Covid-19 cases and deaths was 8.053 days with a standard deviation of 4.116 days for nineteen regions. After excluding data from three more regions due to unavailable age data, the regression yielded an equation of\u00a0<strong>lag = 14.015 &#8211; 0.153 (% cases above 60[yrs of age])<\/strong>\u00a0with a p-value of 0.066. Because the p-value of 0.066 is lower than the 0.10 significance level, there is evidence that a relationship exists between the lag and the age of cases.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;<strong>Conclusions:\u00a0<\/strong>The results show that regions must remain vigilant when Covid-19 cases rapidly increase without similar increases in deaths since there exists a significant lag between the two. Additionally, <strong>a younger demographic of cases may lead to an increased lag<\/strong>, further pushing regions into a false sense of security that should be avoided.&#8221;<em> (emphasis added)<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Deaths in WA jumped from 10 to 18 in the 7-day moving average on Jan 6 from Jan 5 (with counts of 48 and 65 on the 4ths and 6th). We\u2019re just at the 2-week mark since the case spike. Here is a research paper on the estimated lag between cases and deaths: https:\/\/pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov\/33709641\/ &#8220;Results:\u00a0The [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-512","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.c19vir.us\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/512","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.c19vir.us\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.c19vir.us\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.c19vir.us\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.c19vir.us\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=512"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.c19vir.us\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/512\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":515,"href":"https:\/\/www.c19vir.us\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/512\/revisions\/515"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.c19vir.us\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=512"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.c19vir.us\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=512"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.c19vir.us\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=512"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}